Photo : Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS
06 December 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #65
IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
Putin’s Agenda in Ukraine
On 04 December, US intelligence revealed a probable multi-front offensive early next year by the Kremlin using 175,000 troops. The troops are said to be accumulating on the border of Ukraine with a demand to guarantee that Ukraine will not become part of NATO and that the alliance will abstain from military activities in and around the Ukrainian territory. Russia denied stating that the mobilization was a measure to help modernize the Russian armed forces. While the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to happen in the coming days, tensions have already been built due to the Ukraine issue. Therefore, it is important to know why Putin is pushing towards Ukraine, the approaches are taken towards Ukraine, and analyze his larger vision.
The Issue
Russia assembling its military at the Ukrainian border has created frictions at the regional and international levels. But Ukraine has been preparing for a potential invasion of Russia by expanding its defence capacity. The takeover of Crimea was an easier task for Russia as it had the support of people, as they were Russian-speaking or had a historical connection to the land. This is not in the case of Ukraine which is inclined towards the West and Europe. NATO on one side has been supporting by sending its military arms into Ukraine to prepare for an attack from Russia. On the other side, the US along with the EU have imposed a series of sanctions to deter the border conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
As part of its economic strategy, Russia established the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to cut down the gas and oil transit revenues of Ukraine. As a counter, the US has been levying sanctions on the Russian shell companies to curb the influence of Russia but has so far not been impactful. With recent developments between the US and Russia, the problem of Ukraine has escalated into a clash of superpowers.
Factors influencing Putin’s decision
First, to regain imperial control. Since the 1991 dissolution of the USSR, the area starting from Central Europe to Central Asia has been labelled as the “post-Soviet space.” It is the primary factor for Putin, who considers the dissolution a disaster and intends to undo it.
Second, maintaining power. Russia’s stronger stance over Ukraine is not limited to regaining imperial control but also enables Putin to stay in power. To stay in power and uphold his reputation inside Russia, Putin has to fulfil the wishes of the Russian elites. To achieve this, maintaining the geopolitical power of Russia is more than vital.
Third, preserving the status quo. Annexing Ukraine is a resourceful opportunity for Putin to establish the status quo in the region. Through which Russia can be showcased as a superpower in terms of political, social, and military at the region and international levels.
Fourth, expanding Russia’s influence. This factor coincides with the imperial control dream of Putin. To counter the Western influence in the EU, Putin needs to strike influence in Eastern Europe to prevent the future threat of power struggle.
What are the approaches?
The approaches of the Russian President in dealing with the issue of Ukraine can be divided into hard power and soft power.
First, approach through hard power. The Russian leader has deployed various methods such as coercive diplomacy, strategic bombardment and limited offensive. Under coercive diplomacy, Russia by lining its military at the border of Ukraine is not only threatening Ukraine but also sending a message to the western powers. In strategic bombardment, Russia plans to exploit the gaps in Ukraine's air defence and electronic warfare capabilities. Through limited offensive techniques, it destabilizes and disrupts the inside situation of Ukraine.
Second, use of soft power. Russia has been trying to pursue Finlandization and altering the Minsk agreement in Ukraine to influence its politics and take control. Using Finlandization, Russia will be able to make Ukraine endure its foreign policy rules in exchange for nominal independence, allowing Ukraine to have its own political system. Russia’s recent threat against the EU to stop gas supply is also one of its soft power means to keep Germany and the US away from involvement in the Ukrainian issue. Along with these methods, the promise of security guarantees could also be a probable approach of the Russian leader, on which the US might agree. This is because the US, which is already tied in countering China’s rise, will agree to settle down for a security guarantee from Russia to settle the Ukraine issue.
The vision of Putin in Ukraine
The purpose of Putin in annexing Ukraine with Russia has many aspects. First, views on Ukrainian history. According to Putin, he does not see Ukraine and Russia as separate countries but as “one nation.” Ukraine is one of the firsts in Putin’s long-term goal in uniting all former Soviet Union countries. But for the countries which detached from the USSR, it was liberation. The end goal for Putin remains to merge Ukraine with Russia.
Second, to weaken Ukraine. The various approaches are taken by the Russian President mean to weaken Ukraine both militarily and economically and thereby to take control of the politics.
Third, power projection. When it came to deciding on deploying military forces at the Ukrainian border, redrafting the Minsk agreement or conditioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Putin always ensured Russia had the upper hand. The main agenda of Putin as the leader is to prove the powerful position Russia held on the international front.
References:
Shane Harris and Paul Sonne, “Russia planning a massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns,” The Washington Post, 03 December 2021/
Gustav Gressel, “Why Russia could invade Ukraine again,” European Council on Foreign Relations, 03 December 2021.
Dmitry Shlapentokh, “Putin and Ukraine: Power and the construction of history,” Institute of Modern Russia, 08 September 2021.
IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan
BELGIUM
Protests in Brussels against the COVID-19 restrictions
On 05 December, protestors angry over the COVID-19 restrictions stormed Brussels and marched towards the headquarters of the European Union. Initially, the march was peaceful but it took a violent turn when demonstrators started pelting stones at officers. That led to the Police using teargas and water cannons to disperse the protestors. The demonstrators were frustrated with the likely mandatory vaccination which is to be implemented by the EU in the future. And against the sanctions that the unvaccinated people had to face. Parents that joined the protests feared the harmful effects of the vaccine on their young children. The protestors echoed slogans of "Stop vax" and "Freedom" on their march in the capital. Even though Belgium had decided the COVID-19 restrictions at a national level the protestors were targeting the EU institutions in Brussels. (“Protest against coronavirus restrictions turns violent in Brussels,” Reuters, 05 December 2021; “Brussels police fire tear gas as COVID restrictions protests turn violent,” Deutsche Welle, 04 December 2021)
FRANCE
President Macron meets Saudi Arabian Crown Prince
On 04 December, French President Emmanuel Macron met Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as part of Macron’s Gulf tour. The meeting brought to light the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 and Macron would be the first significant Western leader to visit the kingdom in the shadow of the incident. Macron had stated that the meeting does not imply that he has forgotten about what happened but was meeting Prince Salman for France’s self-interests and its strategic interests in the region. Saudi Arabia had been frustrated about the US's approach to human rights issues, the war in Lebanon, and the release of intelligence linking the Prince to the murder of Khashoggi. The two countries also discussed the stalled nuclear talks with Iran and the crisis in Lebanon. While organizations like Amnesty international protested on outstanding issues of human rights with Saudi Arabia. (John Irish, “In Khashoggi's shadow, Macron holds Saudi talks with crown prince”, Reuters, 05 December 2021; “Khashoggi's shadow looms over Macron's talks with Saudi Crown Prince”, France24, 04 December 2021)
Eric Zemmour and his promise of a "reconquest"
On 05 December, the far-right French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour in a political rally announced a “reconquest”. Zemmour has been trying to rally the radical supporters who are not with Macron’s centrist ideologies and named his party “Reconquest” evoking the historical "Reconquista". The rally turned into a scuffle after anti-racism protesters climbed chairs to stand against Zemmour, leading to the injury of five protestors. The police intervened and arrested several dozen anti-Zemmour protestors while the others were chased away. Zemmour has been convicted of racial hatred and has additionally mentioned statements against migration and Islam. During the event, he said: “If I win this election, it won’t be another rotation of power by a reconquest of the greatest country in the world.” He also promised to bring immigration to zero and cut the taxes of the working class, abolish an inheritance tax on family businesses and pull France out of NATO. His speech was welcomed by flag-waving crowds that ran into thousands. (Antony Paone and Leigh Thomas, “Far-right French presidential hopeful promises 'reconquest' at rally”, Reuters, 05 December 2021; Gabriela Galindo, “They’re off: Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Eric Zemmour launch French presidential bids”, POLITICO, 05 December 2021)
REGIONAL
Belarus accuses Ukraine of invasion into airspace
On 05 December, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense called upon its defence attache after Belarus filed a complaint against a Ukrainian helicopter for having crossed into Belarusian airspace. According to Belarus, the helicopter had invaded one kilometre into its air-zone. The Belarusian Ministry released a statement that read: “The military attache was informed that the Ukrainian side is avoiding a dialogue to resolve disputes… which is very worrying.” Although Ukraine rejected the allegations, Belarus said that Ukraine posed a security threat to the country given their military drills that were being conducted at the border. Meanwhile, Ukraine believes Moscow would use Belarus as a launching pad for its attack on Kyiv. (“Belarus summons Ukraine attache over alleged airspace violations,” Deutsche Welle, 05 December 2021; “Belarus summons Ukrainian military attache over border violation,” Reuters, 05 December 2021)
MIGRATION
Pope’s second visit to the Greek island of Lesbos
On 05 December, Pope Francis visited the Greek island of Lesbos and spoke about the migrant crisis as a "shipwreck of civilization”. After walking through the refugee camps of Mavrovouni he greeted the refugees and grieved. As “little had changed” since his last visit in 2016. He rebuked those who used the migration crisis as a means of political purposes and further talked about “living in an era of walls and barbed wire”. Where he referred to European leaders like Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Who called for the EU to jointly finance a border wall using barbed wire to stop the migrants coming from the Middle East through Belarus. The refugees were hopeful with the Pope's visit and found strength knowing that people like him were still thinking about the crisis than coming up with strategies like “pushbacks” that are being used in Greece. (Philip Pullella and Lefteris Papadimas, “Pope calls migrant crisis 'shipwreck of civilisation’”, Reuters, 05 December 2021; “Pope condemns treatment of migrants in Europe”, BBC, 05 December 2021)
INTERNATIONAL
Ukraine: US officials raise concern over Ukraine under Russia
On 05 December, a senior US administration official warned of the possibility of Ukraine becoming “the next Afghanistan” if Russia were to overpower the country by early 2022. Speaking to the Washington Post anonymously, the official said: “The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders… The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,00 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.” However, Moscow has maintained its stance of denying any such plans while blaming Ukraine for amassing troops along its borders. The Connecticut senator Chris Murphy said: “I’ve been in Ukraine six times. I’ve seen the intelligence, the threat is serious… Ukraine can become the next Afghanistan for Russia if it chooses to move further.” Russia, however, has denied these claims. Deputy speaker of the Russian parliament’s upper house Konstantin Kosachev, while speaking to Russia-24, said: “There is no preparation underway for an offensive.” The US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to have talks over “a secure video call” on 07 December. (Martin Pengelly, “Ukraine could be ‘next Afghanistan’ for Russia if it invades, US senator warns,” The Guardian, 05 December 2021; Saim Dusan Inayatullah, “US claims Russia planning Ukraine offensive,” Deutsche Welle, 05 December 2021)
Russian foreign ministry accuses US and NATO of risking civilian life via air accident
On 05 December, the US Air Force was condemned by the Russian foreign ministry for causing “a threat to civil aviation”. This followed an incident on 03 December, when two civilian aircraft and a NATO reconnaissance plane were caught in a mid-air-near-miss over the Black Sea. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova took to Twitter, tweeting: “Just because an air incident over the Black Seas’ Int waters has been prevented, this does not mean the US and NATO can further put lives at risk with impunity.” (“Moscow claims US spy plane nearly caused mid-air 'catastrophe',” Deutsche Welle, 05 December 2021)